Derby Favorites Update

It wasn't a great week for me and my Derby favorites. Secret Circle and Reveron, both of whom I favored even though Reveron was 23rd on the earnings list, are both out of contention with injuries. Reveron was withdrawn after a a left fore condylar fissure was discovered following a one-mile workout. Secret Circle, recently second to Bodemeister in the Arkansas Derby, is out with a sesamoid injury.

The Lexington Derby, which wasn't expected to have much of an effect on the Derby field anyway, turned out to be a bit of a shocker, when 70-1 longshot, All Squared Away, came in late and stole the race by 1-1/2 lengths.

A week after I removed Trinniberg from the list of Derby possibles, I had to add him back on. With Secret Circle out of the race, Trinniberg's owner has changed his mind. The big question for Trinniberg is: can he handle the distance when he's never been over 7 furlongs?

Gemologist worked five furlongs in 1:00.84 with stablemate, Overdriven, at Palm Meadows training center.  They breezed through an opening quarter of 24.87 seconds together. Gemologist remained in hand and gradually edged clear of his partner approaching the wire. He galloped out another eighth-mile in 13.29 for six furlongs in 1:14.13 before pulling up seven-eighths in 1:27.81.

El Padrino went five furlongs in 1:00.48 with Hudson Steele at Palm Meadows training center. The team posted a 25.32 first quarter before piking up the pace to complete three-eighths in 36.82. El Padrino finished about a head behind Hudson Steele after a final quarter-mile in 23.66. They continued on into the turn, galloping out six furlongs in 1:13.34 and pulling up seven-eighths in 1:26.73.

At Calder, Trinniberg's trainer postponed the work he had scheduled for Friday morning.

I'll Have Another breezed six furlongs in 1:13.60 alone at Hollywood Park on Thursday, his first workout since winning the Santa Anita Derby on April 7th.

Take Charge Indy, winner of the Florida Derby, worked five furlongs in 1:01.47 at Palm Meadows training enter on Thursday. Breaking off at the half-mile pole outside workmate Transplendent, Take Charge Indy went the opening eighth in 12.26 and 24.06 for the first quarter. He edged a length clear and completed an easy half-mile in 48.26.

Creative Cause worked five furlongs at Hollywood in 1:01.20 on Tuesday.

My Derby Picks

There were a few changes to my list of Derby horses after this weekend's Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass Stakes.

1. Gemologist
2. Union Rags
3. I'll Have Another
   
4. Hansen -- Tried to pull off a front-running victory in the Blue Grass (G1) but was run down in the stretch. My Derby hopes for him rely on whether or not he'll accept being kept off-the-pace.
   
5. Reveron -- Looking forward to seeing his performance in the Lexington.
   
6. Secret Circle -- Finished a well-beaten second in the Arkansas.
7. Alpha
   
8. Creative Cause
9. Bodemeister -- Has been lightly raced. Was second in the San Felipe (G2). Absolutely dominated the Arkansas Derby (G1) when he took the lead and never looked back.
10. Dullahan -- Third and fifth in maidens at Churchill Downs. Then switched to turf for two starts: second in a maiden and third in With Anticipation (G2). Rounded out the year with a win in the Dixiana Breeders' Futurity (G1) on the synthetic and a fourth place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He started his three-year-old season with a second in the Palm Beach over turf. This weekend, he won the Blue Grass impressively, overtaking Hansen in the stretch coming from the back of the pack.
    
11. Mark Valeski -- Have a soft spot for this one. Finished second in the Risen Star (G2) by a nose and Louisiana Derby (G2) by a half-length. He's still young and I don't think he's shown his full promise yet.
    

My Derby Ten

There's still awhile yet before the Derby but as most of the preps have been run already, I decided to make a list of my top ten.

1. Gemologist - I absolutely loved the way he won the Wood Memorial over the weekend. His professional attitude and pure heart gave me goosebumps. He's undefeated and won the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club last year at Churchill Downs.
   
   
2. Union Rags - I was disappointed in his third-place finish in the G1 Florida Derby but I liked his closing kick despite being caught behind horses. He was second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs and romped in the G2 Fountain of Youth.
   
   
3. Hansen - He's typically a front-runner which I don't normally go for in the Triple Crown but he showed versatility in his off-pace victory in the Gotham Stakes. He won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs.
   
   
4. Reveron - Has been pretty consistent from what I've seen. He finished third in the G3 Sam F. Davis with a rush from behind, held on by a neck to win the Gulfstream Park Derby in a stretch duel, and finished a respectable second in the G1 Florida Derby.
   
   
5. Secret Circle - I'm mostly concerned about his tendency to drift out in the stretch. He had an impressive victory in the second division of the G3 Southwest Stakes despite a stretch duel and a respectable win the G2 Rebel Stakes. He won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint at Churchill Downs.
   
   
6. El Padrino - He was very impressive winning the Risen Star by a nose in a hard-fought stretch duel. He wasn't really a factor in the G1 Florida Derby, finishing fourth.
   
   
7. I'll Have Another - He showed a lot of grit in his G1 Santa Anita Derby win by a nose in a three-way stretch duel. Also took the G2 Robert B. Lewis easily as a longshot.
   
   
8. Prospective - Won the G2 Tampa Bay Derby after being closer to the pace early on and battling in a stretch duel and finished second in the G3 Sam F. Davis with a rush from behind.
   
   
9. Alpha - Was second in the G1 Wood Memorial with a powerful rush but was outmatched. He had a domineering victory in the G3 Withers Stakes. Finished eleventh in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
   
   
10. Creative Cause - Seems to be a good consistent runner. He lost the G1 Santa Anita Derby by only a nose in a three-way stretch duel. Also to his credit are a third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and a victory in the G2 San Felipe.

Thoughts? Who's your bet for this year's Derby?